Will sea level rise by two meters?
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Sea level in the Baltic Sea could rise by two meters
The way to the Baltic Sea in Rostock during storms and high water: Only the dunes still protect the place.
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Rostock. The rise in sea level – it is the big topic at the UN world climate summit in Egypt. Since the beginning of the week, representatives from 160 countries on the Red Sea have been discussing how climate change can at least be slowed down. For the planners in the Schwerin Ministry of the Environment, on the other hand, it has long been clear: MV will have to prepare for more violent storms and rising water levels.
The country therefore wants to invest more than 110 million euros by 2030 alone to protect the coasts from the increasing forces of nature. Schwerin is planning new dikes, new dunes and even wants to raise roads. However, experts from the country are already saying that this will not be enough – certainly not financially.
Up to two meters more sea?
The federal, state and a United Nations commission of experts have so far assumed that the sea level in the Baltic Sea could rise by up to 1.1 meters by 2100. A new projection by the US space agency Nasa, for example, assumes that the Baltic Sea level in Wismar will rise by 94 centimeters over the next 80 years – if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced worldwide.
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Arne Arns is Professor of Coastal Protection at the University of Rostock.
“But that’s just one of various scenarios,” says Prof. Arne Arns. The engineer is a professor for coastal protection and coastal dynamics at the University of Rostock. “If, for example, the world’s large ice sheets suddenly collapse, an increase of 1.70 meters or more cannot be ruled out.”
New strategies: sand instead of concrete
As early as 2020, the state had decided on its new master plan for coastal protection up to 2030 and is setting new priorities: while massive investments have been made in concrete in recent years – for example in the barrage at Ryck in Greifswald – the coastguards now prefer to spend millions on sand , in the flushing of beaches and dunes – including in front of Heiligendamm, Boltenhagen, Lubmin, Ückeritz and Zingst. A total of 50 coastal protection measures are to be implemented over the next seven years. Almost half of these are washups.
The country wants to move half a million cubic meters of sand every year. The gravel comes from deposits in the sea – for example off Hiddensee, Rügen and the Darss Sill. However, sand from dredging measures should also be used. From the point of view of the experts, the right way: “Strengthening dunes and beaches – yes, that makes sense,” says expert Arne Arns. Experts speak of “soft coastal protection”. “In the past, erecting large protective structures was not always expedient.”
110 million euros for new buildings
But the state is also investing in new protective structures – for example in Rostock and Wismar, in new dykes around Prerow or in the Usedom hinterland. A total of 110 million euros. But that won’t be enough, fears coastal protection professor Arns.
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Although the state’s plans are only two years old, they are already out of date. “In 2021, the federal and state governments agreed to apply a ‘climate surcharge’ of one meter to all new coastal protection structures. Future coastal protection measures in MV already take this into account,” says Arns.
